September Inflation US – Monthly
Current Odds
4 more outcomes Listed by current odds, highest first
Odds Summary
0.6% leads at 46% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
September inflation market favors a 0.6% monthly CPI increase
The leading outcomes cluster around 0.5% and 0.6%, but market prices do not establish the result of the September CPI report.
The September 2026 US monthly inflation market assigns the largest quoted probability to a 0.6% increase, followed by 0.5%. In the reviewed snapshot, those outcomes were approximately 45% and 36%, respectively. These figures describe trader pricing, not an official inflation reading.
What the market measures
The question concerns the one-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for September 2026. It should not be confused with annual inflation or a core inflation measure. The market offers separate outcomes from 0.0% or below through 0.8% or above.
How to interpret the odds
The leading outcome remains below 50%, so the distribution leaves substantial room for other results. Prices can change before the report. The displayed odds alone do not reveal why traders favor a particular reading or establish that energy, housing or any other component caused that view.
The imported market closes on October 15, 2026, at 03:59 UTC. Review the source market’s settlement rules and the official CPI release together when assessing the outcome. A forecast or preliminary commentary is not a substitute for the settlement figure.
Source
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
Pricing concentrates on a 0.5%–0.6% seasonally adjusted monthly CPI-U increase, implying September inflation stayed materially firm rather than cooling sharply.
The distribution places limited weight on outcomes at or below 0.3%, consistent with an expectation that the prior month’s elevated headline pace was not a one-off.
What Could Reprice It
The BLS release of September CPI on October 14 is the direct settlement input, so the published seasonally adjusted monthly CPI-U figure should resolve uncertainty at once.
This is more consequential than interim commentary because market rules specify the BLS one-month, seasonally adjusted CPI-U change as the determining series.
Where the Market May Be Weak
Liquidity is modest relative to a nine-outcome distribution, so small shifts between adjacent 0.1-point bins may reflect limited depth rather than a durable consensus on inflation.
The close date follows the scheduled CPI publication, but the available market depth is spread across mutually exclusive outcomes, weakening precision in the implied modal print.
Counter-Signal
August’s 0.4% CPI increase was heavily energy-led: gasoline accounted for over one-third of the gain, leaving room for a lower September headline print if that impulse faded.
A 3.9% August gasoline rise and 2.1% energy increase supported the prior result, but those components can move differently month to month than shelter or core prices.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Platform
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- Category
- Economy › Inflation
- Scheduled deadline
- October 15, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- bls.gov
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current September Inflation US – Monthly odds?
Polymarket reports September Inflation US – Monthly odds with 0.6% at 46%, 0.5% at 36.5%, 0.7% at 13%, and 0.4% at 6%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $51.88K volume, $19.13K liquidity, and $20.88K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 7, 2026, 04:32 UTC.
What could move the September Inflation US – Monthly prediction market odds?
Pricing concentrates on a 0.5%–0.6% seasonally adjusted monthly CPI-U increase, implying September inflation stayed materially firm rather than cooling sharply. The distribution places limited weight on outcomes at or below 0.3%, consistent with an expectation that the prior month’s elevated headline pace was not a one-off. Catalysts to watch include BLS September CPI-U release on October 14, BLS CPI release, October 14, 2026, and Additional participation before the BLS release.
How does the September Inflation US – Monthly prediction market resolve?
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. The settlement source listed for this market is Bls.
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