Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics US Election One Off Open Ends Nov 7, 2028, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
J.D. Vance
30.1%
$0.301
Marco Rubio
26.7%
$0.267
Tucker Carlson
6.7%
$0.067
Ron DeSantis
3.2%
$0.032
Donald Trump Jr.
2.6%
$0.026
30 more outcomes Listed by current odds
  • Thomas Massie 2.2% $0.022
  • Donald Trump 2.1% $0.021
  • Glenn Youngkin 1.4% $0.014
  • Vivek Ramaswamy 1.3% $0.013
  • Ivanka Trump 1.1% $0.011
  • Rand Paul 1% $0.01
  • Tulsi Gabbard 1% $0.01
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene 1% $0.01
  • Ted Cruz 1% $0.01
  • Elon Musk 1% $0.01
  • Kim Kardashian 0.9% $0.009
  • Nikki Haley 0.9% $0.009
  • Greg Abbott 0.9% $0.009
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 0.9% $0.009
  • Brian Kemp 0.9% $0.009
  • Josh Hawley 0.9% $0.009
  • Katie Britt 0.9% $0.009
  • Tom Brady 0.9% $0.009
  • Steve Bannon 0.9% $0.009
  • Matt Gaetz 0.8% $0.008
  • Eric Trump 0.8% $0.008
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders 0.8% $0.008
  • Pete Hegseth 0.8% $0.008
  • Byron Donalds 0.8% $0.008
  • Elise Stefanik 0.8% $0.008
  • Erika Kirk 0.8% $0.008
  • John Thune 0.8% $0.008
  • Joe Kent 0.8% $0.008
  • Kristi Noem 0.7% $0.007
  • Mike Pence 0.7% $0.007
Volume$652.69M Liquidity$42.55M Open Interest$8.69M Last updated2 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 8, 2026 8:03 am.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 05:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Prices imply the GOP field is treated as a succession contest, with Vance and Rubio absorbing most early establishment and MAGA continuity expectations.

The claim is less about 2028 polling today and more about who can inherit coalition legitimacy once the formal primary cycle begins.

Mixed signal 62% CatalystEarly 2028 polling and endorsements RiskLong horizon can swamp current signals

What could reprice it

The next durable repricing catalyst is likely candidate intent: exploratory committees, donor moves, endorsements, or early-state polling after 2026 midterms.

Formal filings and elite endorsements matter more than media speculation because the market resolves on winning and accepting the nomination.

Mixed signal 58% CatalystPost-2026 midterm positioning RiskSoft-launch signals can reverse

Where the market may be weak

Despite large headline depth, many tail names are effectively narrative placeholders, so small flows or attention spikes can distort implied chances.

Multi-outcome pricing can overstate precision because each Yes market has its own microstructure, spreads, and trader base.

Thin signal 49% RiskLiquidity uneven across candidates

Counter-signal

The current leaders may be mispriced if the 2028 electorate rewards governors, outsiders, or a post-Trump break rather than continuity candidates.

Primary coalitions can reset after midterm losses, legal developments, health issues, or a weaker-than-expected administration handoff.

Counterweight 52% Catalyst2026 election results RiskCoalition regime shift

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Platform
Category
Politics › US Election
Close date
November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules

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