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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
40 more outcomes Listed by current odds
- Pete Buttigieg 4.2% $0.042
- Andy Beshear 2.8% $0.028
- Rahm Emanuel 2.3% $0.023
- James Talarico 2.1% $0.021
- Mark Kelly 2% $0.02
- Jon Stewart 1.7% $0.017
- J.B. Pritzker 1.7% $0.017
- Michelle Obama 1.4% $0.014
- Ro Khanna 1.4% $0.014
- Wes Moore 1.3% $0.013
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1.3% $0.013
- Gretchen Whitmer 1.2% $0.012
- Stephen A. Smith 1.1% $0.011
- Cory Booker 1% $0.01
- Mark Cuban 1% $0.01
- Chelsea Clinton 1% $0.01
- Roy Cooper 1% $0.01
- John Fetterman 0.9% $0.009
- Chris Murphy 0.9% $0.009
- Graham Platner 0.9% $0.009
- Oprah Winfrey 0.8% $0.008
- Gina Raimondo 0.8% $0.008
- Raphael Warnock 0.8% $0.008
- Bernie Sanders 0.8% $0.008
- Liz Cheney 0.8% $0.008
- Zohran Mamdani 0.8% $0.008
- Ruben Gallego 0.8% $0.008
- Jared Polis 0.8% $0.008
- LeBron James 0.8% $0.008
- MrBeast 0.8% $0.008
- Hillary Clinton 0.8% $0.008
- Barack Obama 0.7% $0.007
- George Clooney 0.7% $0.007
- Tim Walz 0.7% $0.007
- Beto O’Rourke 0.7% $0.007
- Andrew Yang 0.7% $0.007
- Kim Kardashian 0.7% $0.007
- Phil Murphy 0.7% $0.007
- Hunter Biden 0.7% $0.007
- Jasmine Crockett 0.7% $0.007
Volume$1.17B Liquidity$59.64M Open Interest$15.72M Last updated3 mins ago
Available worldwide. Markets and access may vary by platform and jurisdiction.
What could move the odds
Analyst memo on what current odds imply, the next catalyst, market weak spots, and the counter-signal.
Market-implied thesis
The market is pricing 2028 as a Newsom-led succession race, with national name recognition outweighing formal campaign infrastructure this early.
For a long-dated nomination market, the signal is more about perceived lane control than delegate math; no primary votes or official filings anchor it yet.
What could reprice it
The next real repricing window is the 2026 midterm cycle, when governors, senators, and party factions get fresh proof of electoral strength.
Strong or weak performances by state-level Democratic leaders can shift donor attention, media coverage, and early endorsement networks before 2028 filings.
Where the market may be weak
High headline volume does not remove resolution risk: this is a long-dated, named-person market where many listed tails may never run.
The rule hinges on winning and accepting the Democratic nomination, so withdrawals, non-campaigns, eligibility debates, or convention edge cases can distort prices.
Counter-signal
The current leader may be overpriced if Democratic voters prioritize electability resets over celebrity-scale visibility after the next national cycle.
Early nomination markets often overweight familiar figures; lower-profile governors or senators can re-rate quickly once polling, donors, and endorsements become measurable.
Probability history
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Global Elections
- Close date
- November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
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