Tech Prediction Markets
Track tech prediction markets, including live odds, market volume, liquidity, and forecast signals for AI, software, hardware, startups, space, and major technology events.
Total Active Markets 15
Total Volume $23.38M
Open Interest $2.54M
Total Liquidity $2.92M
Added This Week 8
Closing This Week 0
Bubble size · Volume
Ring color · Probability change (24h)
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Market overview
40 markets| Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will Meta release its Watermelon AI model? | Tech | November 30 | 94.5% | Unavailable | $92.17K |  Polymarket | |
| Which company will lead Code Arena WebDev in October 2026? | Tech | Anthropic | 90% | +6 pp (24h) | $104.33K | Polymarket | |
| Which company will lead Arena Math in October 2026? | Tech | Anthropic | 53.5% | +5 pp (24h) | $68.72K | Polymarket | |
| GPT Astra 6.1 release date? | Tech | — | Unavailable | — | Polymarket | ||
| Which Chinese AI company will lead Arena in October 2026? | Tech | Xiaomi | 39.6% | -2.8 pp (24h) | $193.3K | Polymarket | |
| Claude Fable 5.2 or Higher Release Date | Tech | December 31 | 95.9% | -0.9 pp (24h) | $294.64K | Polymarket | |
| Which Company Will Have the Best AI Model in November 2026? | Tech | 56% | +7 pp (24h) | $264.11K | Polymarket | ||
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Tech | 73.9% | +1.75 pp (24h) | $2.16M | Polymarket | ||
| Which company has the best AI model end of September? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +0.35 pp (24h) | $4.24M | Polymarket | |
| Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? | Tech | 35%+ | 100% | +1.25 pp (24h) | $60.78K | Polymarket | |
| Grok 4.6 release date? | Tech | August 12 | 100% | +61.5 pp (24h) | $263.09K | Polymarket | |
| OpenAI’s Astra release date? | Tech | October 31 | 100% | +1.15 pp (24h) | $2.08M | Polymarket | |
| Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +3.05 pp (24h) | $176.43K | Polymarket | |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 | Tech | October 31 | 100% | +2.3 pp (24h) | $795.61K | Polymarket | |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of August? | Tech | Alibaba | 100% | +1.85 pp (24h) | $1.1M | Polymarket | |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model release date? | Tech | No release by August 31 | 100% | +0.7 pp (24h) | $322.94K | Polymarket | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announce date? | Tech | December 31, 2027 | 59.5% | 0 pp (24h) | $1.32M | Polymarket | |
| Which company has the best AI Agent end of August? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +1.05 pp (24h) | $132.35K | Polymarket | |
| OpenAI Product Announcement in 2026 | Tech | Earbuds/Headphones | 21% | +3 pp (24h) | $453.78K | Polymarket | |
| Next Mythos-Class Model release date | Tech | October 31 | 100% | +4 pp (24h) | $1.61M | Polymarket | |
| OpenAI IPO date | Tech | June 30, 2027 | 40.5% | 0 pp (24h) | $3.04M | Polymarket | |
| Largest Company end of August? | Tech | NVIDIA | 100% | +0.2 pp (24h) | $2.92M | Polymarket | |
| Which company has best AI model end of August? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +0.4 pp (24h) | $3.27M | Polymarket | |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of July | Tech | Alibaba | 100% | +4.25 pp (24h) | $1.04M | Polymarket | |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 | Tech | August 31 | 100% | +1.7 pp (24h) | $887.16K | Polymarket | |
| Next Claude Opus released by…? | Tech | August 31 | 100% | +5.6 pp (24h) | $1.34M | Polymarket | |
| Anthropic IPO date | Tech | December 15, 2026 | 74.5% | +1 pp (24h) | $4.54M | Polymarket | |
| OpenAI valuation 2026 | Tech | ↑$1.25T | 70.5% | +0.5 pp (24h) | $1.28M | Polymarket | |
| Which company has best AI model end of July? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +0.3 pp (24h) | $8.23M | Polymarket | |
| GPT-6 release date | Tech | December 31, 2026 | 100% | +0.65 pp (24h) | $2.44M | Polymarket | |
| GPT-5.6 release date | Tech | July 9 | 100% | +1.75 pp (24h) | $1.01M | Polymarket | |
| Next Claude Sonnet release date | Tech | July 1 | 100% | Unavailable | $653.2K | Polymarket | |
| Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…? | Tech | July 17 | 100% | Unavailable | $344.83K | Polymarket | |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | Tech | June 30 | 100% | Unavailable | $257.14K | Polymarket | |
| Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? | Tech | 30%+ | 100% | Unavailable | $407.18K | Polymarket | |
| Largest Company end of June? | Tech | NVIDIA | 100% | +0.65 pp (24h) | $24.64M | Polymarket | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | Tech | June 30, 2027 | 18.5% | -1 pp (24h) | $3.04M | Polymarket | |
| Which company has best AI model end of June? | Tech | Anthropic | 100% | +0.5 pp (24h) | $22.32M | Polymarket | |
| Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? | Tech | August 31 | 100% | +4.05 pp (24h) | $5.43M | Polymarket | |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Tech | Anthropic | 55.3% | -2.55 pp (24h) | $6.52M | Polymarket |
